At the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics

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Modeling Middle-Mile Fuel Distribution During Disaster

Authors:
Ben Cutler, Maximiliano Subercaseaux
MIT Supply Chain Management Program (SCM)



Summary:
Disasters such as fires, earthquakes, or cyber attacks can temporarily take parts of the middle-mile fuel supply chain offline. Develop an operational flow capacity (OFC) model that captures the dynamics of fuel distribution from oil refineries and marine shipments via product pipelines to distribution terminals, assessing time to survive under steady and disrupted states. Apply this model to simulated disruptions (e.g., refinery shutdowns, pipeline blockages) in Southern California to support emergency management planning.


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